UFC 87 Betting Lines
Date: 2008-11-01 01:34:04
Source: http://www.fightticker.com/story_0804081245_ufc_87...
Submitted By: UFC Dump
OK, everyone. We are now about five days away from UFC 87. This is going to be a very interesting card. Most of the fights are pretty evenly matched, and for the majority of them, there is no real consensus out there. This makes betting tougher, but it makes it that much sweeter when you get it right. The lines First off, there are five fight with no odds, as of right now: Cheick Kongo vs. Dan Evensen, Andre Gusmao vs. Jon Jones, Steve Bruno vs. Chris Wilson, Tamdan McCrory vs. Luke Cummo, and Ben Saunders vs. Ryan Thomas. That leaves us with the following fights with betting lines: Georges St. Pierre (-320) Jon Fitch (+260) Brock Lesnar (-265) Heath Herring (+205) Kenny Florian (-160) Roger Huerta (+130) Manny Gamburyan (-335) Rob Emerson (+255) Demian Maia (-275) Jason MacDonald (+215) Fights I'm not touching Let's start with the two fights I did not take. Manny Gamburyan has looked very strong in his last two fights, beating Nate Mohr and Jeff Cox via submission, both in under two minutes. My issue with him comes from the fight before that...the finals of the TUF 5 tournament against Nate Diaz. Watching Gamburyan's shoulder pop out of its socket that way (in a fight I thought he was winning at the time) was a sad end to what promised to be an exciting fight. Seeing that happen once was enough for me. Regarding Gamburyan's opponent, I'm actually surprised that Rob Emerson still has a contract with the UFC. He did defeat Keita Nakamura in his last fight, but Gamburyan should win this fight. I am not willing to lay $335 on a fighter with a balky shoulder to win $100. Stayin' away. The other fight I didn't touch is the Georges St. Pierre - Jon Fitch fight. I was shocked when I couldn't figure out a way to bet on this fight. I think St. Pierre is an absolute freak athletically, and he has looked great, save the first Matt Serra fight. He truly seems to get what it means to be champion now, and I respect that. His wrestling has improved ten-fold since the first Matt Hughes fight, and that, combined with his precision striking and solid BJJ, has turned him into a challenger for the mythical "pound-for-pound" title. Jon Fitch, on the other hand, is a pretty talented guy, too. His wrestling is superb. He has won 15 consecutive fights, eight of which have come in the UFC. He has beaten Diego Sanchez (split decision) and Thiago Alves (TKO). And, the last time he lost a fight was in December, 2002. The guy just finds ways to win fights. He controls his opponents. I think, in my heart of hearts, this fight will go down much like the Anderson Silva - Nate Marquardt fight did. The underdog will come out strong, but will be finished when the favorite wants to end it. At the same time, Fitch is a tough guy, and if we don't get the best GSP on Saturday, Fitch could technically grind out a decision win. It's not worth the $320 I'd have to lay on GSP, and I can't throw out $100 on Fitch, because I really think GSP will pull it out. Fights I am taking Onto the fights I did take. I like Demian Maia over Jason MacDonald. MacDonald seems to look spectacular against the lower to mid-level fighters he gets in there with (Chris Leben, Ed Herman, Rory SInger, and Joe Doerksen), but when he steps up in class, he looks shell-shocked (Yushin Okami and Rich Franklin). I think Maia is in that second category. Maia's submission game is pretty amazing at 185 pounds, and while MacDonald's is good, I think Maia finds a way to finish "The Athlete". After going back and forth on the amount I wanted to throw out there, I decided to lay the whole $275 on Maia, to win $100. Next up is the Brock Lesnar - Heath Herring fight. Lesnar is a freak. His strength is unparalleled. The guy is a beast. But the UFC has not done him any favors in his first two fights, giving him a submission machine in Frank Mir, and now a double-tough Texan in Heath Herring. I think people put WAY too much stock in Herring's loss to Jake O'Brien. I think the gltiz and glamour of the UFC got in Herring's head that night. He didn't perform as well as he could have (obviously). But since 2001, the only fighters Herring has lost to are Vitor Belfort (in his prime), Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera (three times -- he's got Heath's number), Fedor Emelianenko (no shame in this one), Mirko Filipovic (also at his destructive best), an injury loss to Sam Greco (Herring hurt his knee and could not continue), and the aforementioned O'Brien. Heath is a legitimately tough guy. I think he is going to throw with Lesnar, and I think Herring's experience in the big show will pull him through. If Lesnar has allowed any doubt to creep into his head after the Mir fight, this will be a short night for him. While I acknowledge the fact that Lesnar could pound Herring out, I'll take the "Texas Crazy Horse" in this one, laying $100 to win $205. Finally, the bout I am the most excited about: Roger Huerta vs. Kenny Florian. I don't know why, but I can't wait for this fight. I think it has the potential to be a stand-up war. I don't know if either of these fighters has the power to knock the other one out, so we could see three straight rounds of these two hurling haymakers at each other, going for it all. Both of these guys have performed very well against mostly questionable competition (Huerta's win over Clay Guida and Florian's loss against Sean Sherk being the exceptions). I think "Ken-Flo" always has a chance in any fight, because of those elbows (ask Sherk). He could open up a gash on Huerta's melon and end it early, like he did in the Alex Karalexis fight. However, I don't think it will go that way. I think Huerta will control the fight, and win a razor-thin unanimous decision over Kenny. I think this one wins "Fight of the Night", and if it's a fraction of the fight I expect it to be, I think we will all be entertained. I like Huerta, laying $200 to win $260. I'm slightly upset about the timing of the fights, because my pasty-white butt will be on a beach in San Diego, standing up for a college buddy as he marries his long-time girlfriend right when the fights should be going off. This will be the first UFC event I haven't watched live in quite some time, but I guess this wedding stuff comes with the territory as we get older. Enjoy the fights. (Tom MacKay is 17-10 on straight